Dubai real estate prices likely to face double-digit fall after years of boom, Fitch says
Dubai Property Prices Expected to Decline as Supply Surges, Says Fitch
DUBAI, May 29 (Reuters) – Dubai’s real estate market may be heading for a notable correction, with property prices projected to decline by up to 15% in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, according to a new report by Fitch Ratings. This marks a sharp shift after several years of rapid post-pandemic growth.
Fitch attributes the anticipated price drop to a significant surge in housing supply. Over 210,000 new units are scheduled for delivery across 2025 and 2026—double the number launched over the past three years—potentially leading to a record-level oversupply that could pressure prices downward.
This expected correction would follow a remarkable 60% rise in residential prices between 2022 and Q1 2025. The boom was fueled by Dubai’s aggressive infrastructure investments, zero income tax policies, and liberalized visa and residency rules that attracted a wave of foreign residents, including many from Russia amid the war in Ukraine.
Real estate remains a cornerstone of Dubai’s economy. The sector saw transactions worth AED 761 billion ($207 billion) last year, reflecting a 36% increase in volume, according to official Dubai government figures.
However, the emirate has experienced severe market downturns in the past. The most notable was the 2009 crash, which led to a deep market correction and required a $20 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi.